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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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